COVID-19: a year later – Foreign Policy Youth Collaborative

ECONOMY:

As we look back at what was a tumultuous year amidst an ongoing global pandemic, we cannot help but begin with the pandemic’s catastrophic economic effects. After all, the economy, despite thousands dead, was the utmost priority for many politicians. For the average U.S. citizen, the pandemic was devastating. The Statista research department provided graphs indicating the peak of unemployment to have occurred during the U.S.’s initial lockdown, which, on a seasonally-adjusted graph, was 14.7 percent and 13.3 percent in April and May, respectively. Although the unemployment number went down to about 6.7 percent in December, the U.S. currently remains down almost 10 million jobs from the pre-recession level. The hardest-hit sector, according to the University of New Hampshire, was leisure and hospitality. This sector includes the food and service industry, which saw a loss of 19.2 percent employment, and the arts and entertainment industry, which saw a loss in 27.9 percent employment.

The pandemic proved even more difficult for small business owners. Although it is impossible to gauge the exact number of small business closures due to COVID-19, the estimates are staggering. One Yelp report noted that around 163,735 businesses that were listed in April closed down in September. This would indicate an average of about 800 business closures per day. Another study conducted at the University of California Santa Cruz estimates that average business closures per day from February to September totals to 1,500. Despite a plethora of business closures, many owners still feel optimistic. The Wells Fargo small business index, a summary comprised of 6 financial indicators, notes the fourth-quarter result of 72 is higher than the third-quarter result of 60. The business index indicated that many small business owners surveyed, surprisingly, scored high in their optimism for the future. Their optimism, as the index noted, was not supported by their current financial situation.

And while COVID-19 produced financial hardships for most people, the ultra-wealthy saw the opposite effect. America’s billionaires’ collective wealth grew to a staggering $931 billion, Jeff Bezos’ wealth grew about 80 percent. This comes as no surprise, as most people have been doing online shopping as opposed to in person. And although Amazon’s profits have skyrocketed, reports of unsuitable working conditions and COVID-19 outbreaks have remained. Similarly, Elon Musk’s wealth grew a staggering 288 percent. Musk has recently come under fire for reopening Tesla’s plant in Fremont, California, despite county orders. Moreover, Tesla is said to have fired two plant workers for taking unpaid leave despite the company’s claim that they were free to. Musk has denied the allegations despite multiple employee reports.

Although the current economic state appears gloomy, experts feel more optimistic about the future. According to the United Nations (U.N.), a recovery of 4.7 percent is predicted globally. While China, the only country in 2020 to have reported positive economic growth in 2020, is predicted to grow by 7.2 percent in 2021, the U.S. is predicted to only grow 3.4 percent, following a shrink of 3.9 percent in 2020. Many economists are hopeful for the future; however, only time will tell how the pandemic will genuinely affect the economy.

EDUCATION:

While countries and nations worldwide directed their focus to understand the pandemic and limit its spread, they overlooked a significant part of students’ lives: education.

The first cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, later identified as the novel COVID-19 strain, was reported by January 4, with widespread school closures following in mid-March. By March 16, 777 million children and students were forced out of schools and universities due to mandated lockdowns in a total of 100 countries, with 85 governments closing schools nationwide and 15 others imposing localized school closures, according to UNESCO. A large majority of those – 670 million – are between preschool age and 18 years old.

In an attempt to continue the school year, online schooling became the new normal despite the struggles it provided. Virtual learning is not a new concept: before the pandemic, virtual learning was on a modest yet steady growth. However, conducting online learning on an exponentially larger scale was one of our most extensive experiments mid-COVID-19. As the pandemic surges on, many continue to opt-out of returning for in-person learning for the sake of risking contracting the virus. There is a unanimous consensus between administrators that the instability of online schooling impacted students around the world; academic performance became severely hindered, leaving long-term effects on students’ mentalities and desire to learn when it came to education during the times of such tumultuous events.

Closures impacted severely impacted students from low-income neighborhoods in academic progress compared to those from wealthier communities, according to a new study conducted by Yale economist Fabrizio Zilibotti. Students living in the poorest 20 percent of neighborhoods experience the most harmful and long-lasting effects of school closures. “The American educational reformer Horace Mann called schools ‘the great equalizer’ as they provide a single learning environment where kids from different socioeconomic backgrounds can mingle and flourish,” said Zilibotti, the Tuntex Professor of International and Development Economics in Yale’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences. “But the long periods of school closure during the COVID-19 pandemic deprive children of the equalizing force of education,” he said. For students from poorer backgrounds, an inability to communicate amongst others and suffer from a lack of necessities makes the challenges and tribulations of online schooling all the more challenging.

Now, schools are reopening after a year of online schooling, as evidence as the Center for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that schools pose little risk in spreading COVID-19. The Biden Administration aimed to reopen schools by using rapid testing and vaccination distribution, leaving teachers stressed and students to catch up from falling behind academically, mentally, and even socially.

“This is not going to be a problem that goes away as soon as the pandemic is over,” said Jimmy Sarakatsannis, leader of education practice at consulting firm McKinsey and Company, when addressing the regression of academic achievement in students. Educators and students alike are unprepared for making any sort of return to normal schooling. After a year of attempting to control the pandemic, the prospect of stabilizing how students receive their education still remains a guessing game.

INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC RELATIONS:

The COVID-19 pandemic has created tensions between countries because their leaders have handled the issue and their response. Debates over how to deal with the ongoing pandemic has split the northern and southern members of the European Union. The root of this issue is within the monetary cost of dealing with the fallout of COVID-19; governments such as Italy were initially hit the hardest in Europe by the pandemic and did not receive the help they needed from others. Germany and the Netherlands were extremely reluctant to help pay for medical supplies or offer help to Italy when they needed it the most. It further soured relationships between the existing members of the E.U. Now that there is another strain of this disease from Great Britain (although they are no longer in the E.U.), it will continue to test the true bond between the members of the European Union and whether or not they will make the same financial mistakes that hurt reactions in the beginning.

Blame has been thrown on all parties throughout the spread of the COVID-19, the most infamous of former president Donald Trump using the racist term “Chinese virus” to describe the virus and blaming them solely for the breakout and eventual pandemic. This has strained relations worldwide from former president Donald Trump making Beijing the scapegoat and then refusing to take the necessary precaution to protect American citizens from the illness’s harms. This became especially clear when Trump (Ironically) wanted to open America’s borders, but Canada’s Prime minister Justin Trudeau was simply not having it. The pandemic strained tensions across the globe by shifting blame from one country to another and disagreements over preventative measures to take.

One of the peak tensions that was felt across the globe was in July of last year when Trump refused to join an international coalition with 170 other countries out together by the World Health Organization, citing a “china-centric” response to the issue. This was in September after hundreds of thousands of people, including thousands of Americans, had already died. This then came back to hurt the entire world because richer countries like the United States were already speaking with private companies to get vaccines for their citizens, meaning that poorer countries who have been hit the hardest and don’t have the resources to fight back will also have to wait longer for more doses. This “Vaccine nationalism” will make it harder for countries to work together in the future because what we see now, and what we saw with H1N1 in 2009, is that wealthier countries are grabbing all the first doses and leaving others to struggle. This creates the sense of every person for themselves, which is ultimately detrimental to the world and closes countries off for future health initiatives.

Before the world was dealing with COVID-19, we still had to deal with conflicts, and those conflicts were worsened by the pandemic. In already politically unstable areas around the world, rebel groups have taken advantage of the increased instability and weakened central governments. The United Nations brokered a ceasefire in the beginning of the pandemic; however, areas such as India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan and the Philippines have seen an increased amount of conflict. International efforts to thwart rebel groups plans have been put on hold as the world turned to solving the issues of the quickly spreading COVID-19. Conflict-inflicted areas were already vulnerable and the pandemic exacerbated the situation, international organizations like WHO are spread thin and unable to provide sufficient aid to countries suffering from armed conflict. Humanitarian groups are further limited due to travel lockdowns and restricted access to recourse. In general, due to the lack of attention and resources, areas that were already politically unstable and facing more challenges leading rebel groups in the area to exploit their increasing vulnerability.

COVID-19 has pointed out areas that were lacking within international governing bodies, and we should take this chance to learn from our mistakes. Issues such as health diplomacy and the politics of crisis have shown to be vital to the wellbeing of everyone on our planet. In the future, it will be important that we put a larger emphasis on global health diplomacy. The health of the public should not be a political pawn that governments use to get what they want, rather the world should shift more effort into securing their peoples’ health by breaking barriers in developing nations in order to lessen medical inequality throughout the world. That is a big focus of health diplomacy, by creating international coalitions it can open up countries to more bilateral communication for solving issues that are yet to come. Throughout the pandemic we have seen countries that are unwilling to work together, the US not joining international efforts, Germany and Netherlands not helping their southern neighbor, and rich countries securing vaccines for themselves rather than fair and even distribution. It is important that we learn from our global mistakes and start to focus on health diplomacy so in the future we can prevent – or better combate – a health crisis.

CLIMATE:

COVID-19’s effects on our world have been drastic and profound. Along with rising political tensions and faltering economies, one effect has been far more universal than divisive. Although not often thought of first in correlation with the pandemic, both the climate and environment itself have gone through a period of unprecedented changes. Sightings of wildlife in localities once overwhelmed with people went viral in the early months of the pandemic; however, many, such as the now famous tweet regarding dolphins in the Venice canal, were debunked quickly by multiple news sources. In a way, the outline of these events draw an interesting parallel to the manner in which our environment has transformed at the hands of the pandemic. Despite initially encouraging optimism amongst the scientific community, the hopes of many have lessened in the recent months of the pandemic.

Nonetheless, it is true that there were benefits to the environment due to COVID. In the United States, one of the most significant changes was seen in the state of New York during the period of lockdown, with a high drop in sewage discharge and runoff around the rivers of Manhattan. NASA scientists observed the slowing of deforestation in rainforest areas near Colombia and Peru, perhaps due to the implementation of national lockdowns. Satellite imaging displayed that positive effects were present on the other side of the world as well. In India, the halting of large industrial and construction projects led to smaller amounts of pollution, with a NASA study indicating that the concentration of a particular air pollutant had decreased by around 25-33 percent from previous years to COVID-19 (Science Daily). These pronounced changes have provided researchers with an idea of what the Earth’s potential future could look like should governments and individuals follow environmentally friendly regulations.

Most significantly, the lockdowns have played a significant role in the limitation of transportation as well. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) states that travel restrictions worldwide and lessened commuting led to a 65.2 percent drop in the air passenger traveling kilometres from that of the previous year (European Environment Agency). During the earlier period of lockdowns, government mandated curfews and the heavy emphasis on staying indoors led to sights of empty roads, and along with them, notable improvements in air quality with the inevitable reduction in fossil fuel consumption. In addition to this, the often lesser-known noise pollution, often considered an “unseen threat” to surrounding nature, decreased greatly as industrial and urbanization projects were halted due to the pandemic.

Unfortunately, such effects were not projected to last long, and nor have they. Numerous researchers have stated that although the initial stages of the pandemic presented positive changes, they would always have been temporary. The ending of lockdowns across the world and the recovery of populations struck by the pandemic mean that these effects have already begun to wither away. One needs to look no further than China to see this. Being the first country hit by the pandemic, it initiated a variety of safety measures that led to visible improvements in air quality nationwide. However, its speedy recovery has also shown that it is far too optimistic to believe the positive environmental changes made as a result would remain. The once quiet streets are consumed by traffic at rates like that of before the pandemic.

It was to be expected that this would happen. As cities begin to return back to normal, citizens who have remained at home would inevitably jump at the opportunity to live life the way they once used to. This behavior is being demonstrated by corporations as well. The economic devastation faced by multiple populations as a result of COVID has led to the spearheading and approval of a variety of new industrialization projects by companies in China, particularly those that are heavy sources of pollution. It is highly likely that these events will play out similarly across the globe, with economic and social rebuilding taking precedence over that of the environment during this period of time. These changes became evident in the past year as well as the global carbon emissions went up by around 12 percent from their decreased amount in April 2020 (National Geographic).

Additionally, the continued utilization of single-use packaging and plastic protective equipment has led to greater amounts of plastic waste during the pandemic, all of which is visible in oceans and streets worldwide. As restaurants closed in-person dining, the alternative takeout option was highly appealing to many customers, resulting in the increased usage of styrofoam and plastic containers. Options of home-delivery for groceries and greater overall online purchases has only added to this as well. While these were and continue to be necessary sanitary precautions in light of the current situation, they have led to environmental setbacks. For example, multiple states that had previously banned the use of single-use plastic bags were forced to reverse the legislation out of concerns that the virus could be transferred through the reusable alternatives.

However, not all has been lost. According to the UN, should more nations take strides to recover from the pandemic in an environmentally-safe way, global emissions have the potential to decrease by around a quarter. This includes the continued development of zero-emissions technologies in the form of electrical vehicles and transportation, as well as the implementation of alternative renewable energy sources in place of coal plants. Although more difficult due to the costs of the pandemic, deforestation and severe urbanization should not be encouraged either. The world has gone through a severe crisis that has affected each and every individual; careful measures must be taken in order to ensure that another is not in the near future.

CRIME:

COVID-19’s impact on crime may seem obvious at a first glance; due to self quarantine and social distancing guidelines, it would make sense that crime rates decrease due to lack of populous public spaces. Data from early in the pandemic reflects this rhetoric; 911 calls were down in some major cities, such as Chicago and Baltimore. At the time, nationally representative data had not yet been gathered, so we could only conjecture based on anecdotal data because of the numerous different offenses which fall under the umbrella of crime.

In the following months, contradicting trends began to emerge. In late May and June, homicides and aggravated assaults rose, along with gun assaults, though the latter was not more significant than in earlier years. In contrast, residential burglary rates between March and August 2020 had dropped by 25 percent. Recent increases in violent crime have only been exacerbated by social distancing requirements, which make it more difficult for police to investigate crimes and outreacher workers to enact preventative strategies against violence.

An area of significant concern in the context of the pandemic is domestic violence. Widespread stay-at-home orders make it so that people potentially have to spend a lot more time with their abusers. Domestic violence incidents are underreported, and the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the closure of domestic violence shelters, resulting in a potential increase in the frequency of these crimes as well as their reporting. Though nationwide data has not yet been made readily available, studies of major cities such as Chicago saw rises in domestic-related police calls for service. Problematically, a lot of domestic violence identification occurs in healthcare settings, when medical professionals can note signs of abuse during physical exams. Due to the pandemic, health services have been restricted for many, setting a troubling precedent for reporting by those who often don’t feel comfortable filing a police report directly.

An aspect of the pandemic’s effect on crime with little media attention thus fat is how white-collar crime has changed. While most headlines focus on violent crimes, social distancing requirements and lockdowns have greatly decreased access to courts, where much of the conflicts relating to white-collar crime are handled. Investigations have also been hindered due to these requirements. With large amounts of resources committed to COVID-19 response operations, the already-slow process of trials relating to white-collar crime has been further hindered.

On an international scale, homicide rates in some countries fell significantly shortly after restrictive measures were enacted. Alas, as restrictions gradually loosened and people were more willing to flout the ones that did exist, rates returned to normal. In comparison, reports of property crime decreased as well and remain lower than average. The widespread unemployment rates and financial issues propagated by the pandemic will likely provide an incentive for theft and other crimes of the like in the future.

MENTAL HEALTH:

In future history classes, students will most definitely discuss the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world’s economy and education system. However, it is imperative historians will also continue discussing the unfortunate effects on the mental health of the world as well. Through the past year, the amount of people reaching out for mental health services has increased dramatically. Tthe Los Angeles suicide and mental health hotlines reported that the number of calls they received has increased by 8,000 percent since the pandemic began. With quarantine measures still into effect for many, there is really no telling what the long-term cognitive effects of the pandemic will be.

Researchers are also noticing an increased amount of United States citizens experiencing symptoms of depression and/or anxiety. In December of 2020, a survey issued by the United States Census Bureau found that more than 42 percent of those surveyed had experienced said symptoms, an 11 percent increase from the year prior. Many experts, such as Luana Marques of Harvard Medical School, have been monitoring the mental health impacts of the pandemic around the world. “I don’t think this is going to go back to baseline anytime soon,” Marques said.

It is also important to note that this statistic is regarding only adults in the United States; youth have faced mental health adversity as well. Surveys done throughout the pandemic have seemed to consistently show that it is the young people who are being most psychologically affected over the course of the last year. Some causes suggested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) include an abrupt change in routine, a break in continuity of learning, missing significant life events, and a loss of safety and security. Last March, most adolescents around the world were restricted to their homes with their families, attempting to teach themselves their classes – and for many, that is still their reality eleven months later.

No aspect of life has been left unaffected by COVID-19; from increasing unemployment rates, quarantine and social distancing guidelines, and tragically increasing infection rates, it is understandable why many have struggled to keep a positive outlook on life. Thus, it is essential to take action on the individual level for your own wellbeing. Try to get outside safely, find something to invest yourself in, or visit with your loved ones virtually. It is important to remember that you’re not alone in these uncertain times.

SOURCES

Economy:

Education:

International and domestic relations:

Climate:

Crime:

Mental health:

Written by Celeste Resendiz, Hannah Winnick, Saani Kulkarni, Trisha Mazumdar, Zoya Hussain, and Bryn Donovan.