Securing Interests: How Ukraine and Washington are Forcing Russia Into a Fight

Ukrainian reports state that Russia currently has roughly 40,000 troops stationed in Crimea and another 40,000 near Ukraine’s Donbass region, an eastern border to Russia that is partially controlled by Russian separatists. Though they already had many troops deployed, Russia sent 4000 more troops to their border with Ukraine in mid April- This quickly resulted in a claim from the Kremlin that this was a response to NATO military exercises in Eastern Europe. This not-so-sudden buildup of troops came after clashes between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed separatists in the aforementioned Donbass region. The United States has responded with sanctions and by sending warships to the Black Sea with the intent to intimidate Russia into backing down, or so it seems. In reality, Ukraine and the United States want a fight. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been high for years, and Ukrainian president Vlodoymyr Zelenski, in collaboration with the United States, has provoked Russia to escalate conflict in order for Zelenski to regain his grip on the country, and so the United States can protect their interests abroad.

Zelenski wants to create a large enough conflict to force Russia to directly intervene with the hopes of returning to a pre-2014 geopolitical landscape. After the US-backed Ukrainian Maidan revolution (also known as Euromaidan) where Ukrainian citizens overthrew former president Yanukovych, over 600,000 Ukrainians living in the Donbass region were given dual citizenship with Russia. After this revolution, Russia never recognized Yanukovych’s successor, Petro Poroshenko, and feels compelled to protect Russian citizens still living in Ukraine. They also feel the need to bring justice to the Ukrainians that fled due to the actions during the Maidan. This is the primary reason why Russia increased their number of troops near the Donbass region during clashes with the Ukrainian military. “Conflict with Russia in that region will raise Zelenski’s approval ratings up from out of the toilet,” says Moscow-based international affairs analyst Mark Sleboda, in an interview with the Grey Zone, stating that it will create a version of the ‘rally around the flag effect’ by framing the situation in a way to break any bond between Ukrainians and Russians.

On April 22nd, Russia announced that they would be pulling troops out of Ukraine with their defense minister commanding units from the 58th and 41st armies back to their permanent bases. While Biden and NATO have praised this action and secured a summit in June of 2021 with Russia at the top of their agenda, this does not mean that the situation is resolved. The United States has been landing military equipment and trucks in Odessa, Ukraine, as well as other parts of the country. There is more than likely going to be a continued build up as the US is moving more fire power to Europe, and as Biden orders more warships into the Black Sea.

These recent escalations happened simultaneously as NATO ran defensive drills within Eastern Europe that Russia saw as threatening. Russia advised against these actions, however Ukraine and NATO are still planning to run more drills in the summer months. The city of Kiev released a statement differrering from that of NATO and of the US, as it claims these future drills will be offensive rather than defensive. Despite warning signs that Russia will view these drills as threatening, NATO and Ukraine are planning to move forward with the full support of the United States. The moving of a few soldiers in this never ending conflict means relatively nothing as the Kremlin states “[they] are taking measures in response to threats from NATO” including blocking areas of the Black Sea, which has made Ukraine worry as to if this will affect their shipping. Each country involved, the United States, Ukraine, and Russia and taking actions that indicate upcoming fighting despite recent pullbacks of troops as all 3 countries are stubbornly stuck in their ways.

The United States has shown that they are invested in this matter, but why? Some experts hypothesize that these are actions taken by Russia to test the new administration. This is simply not the case. Not only does this incorrect notion come from the idea that the United States is the center of foreign affairs (which it is not) and therefore countries need to know where they stand with every new president; but Biden has already shown where he stands with Russia while he was vice president, and with new deals he is trying to pass with Russia and China surrounding nuclear weapons. Ironically, as Biden is shaming Russia for their troops on the Ukrainian border, he is simultaneously greenlighting the developing conflict in Ukraine in order to secure American interests abroad.

After the escalation of troops by Russia on the Ukrainan border, the United States placed sanctions on Russia for a variety of issues including cyber hacking and other “malgin” actions. These sanctions were not meant to stop the amassing troops as they targeted blacklisted companies and largely targeted banking issues, rather these sanctions were placed to secure American interests abroad as President Biden stated “When Russia seeks to violate the interests of the United States, we will respond.” The United States is taking these actions of sanctions and puppeteering with Ukraine to involve them in conflict as a response to their growing influence within Latin America. After an unstable year caused by the pandemic and an upcoming year of hectic elections, (including a self proclaimed Marxist who is heading towards the presidential runoff in Peru) Russia has taken special interests in Latin America’s rebuilding. The United States is seeing Russian involvement in Latin America as a direct threat, they want to combat this by growing their own influence within Eastern Europe as well as by severing ties that Russia had with other Eastern European countries. This should be shocking to everyone watching as this type of mindset was similar to the Cold War, where Russia and the US were actively engaging in other countries to further increase their influence.

The Ukrainian president Zelenski, with help from Washington, plans on provoking Russia into a military conflict within the Donbass region so that any ties Ukrainian separatists had with Russia will be severed. In doing this Zelenski plans to salvage the little support he has left by returning to pre-2014 Ukraine with unity under his leadership. The United States is actively involving themselves into the situation to combat Russian intervention in Latin America. However, it is important to address growing concerns over this escalation. This will not lead to another world war or large European conflict. Not only is Ukraine not a member of NATO, meaning that they would have no reason to get involved or drag Europe into a conflict, but Russia knows that this would be a nuclear red-line to cross and is not willing to risk that. The correlations in the mindsets between this conflict and the Cold War are large, but it is still too early to tell what exactly is going to come of this situation in the longer term for the United States and Russia.

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